Fooled by Randomness
The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
Description du livre
Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented' but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you.
Avis
DON'T BE FOOLED
TALEB offers us life saving insights about being gullible and too trusting in misleading ideas and charlatans. Guru's sell their latest opinion about food, climate and happiness based on flawed induction and survivorship bias. They miss the randomness of any trends and the fact that no one can replicate what is obtained through chance. Taleb is famous for the Black Swan Theory where an event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After it is rationalized by hindsight. Examples of black swans include 9/11, financial collapse, power grid failure, the internet, rapid climate change.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend: Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the Ancient World's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses.
"Intelligent, honest, and revealing. There exists a distinct Taleb way of thinking and it is contagious." Marco Avellandea, Professor of Mathematical Finance, New York University.